Research
Thinking on information markets, mechanism design, and the primitives that make them work.
Hedging That Needs Continuous Probability
Polymarket's March 2026 oil markets case study: how binary architecture fragments liquidity across strikes, why staircase hedges leave basis risk, and how a continuous market collapses 21 binaries into one position.
Binary Events: Does Liquidity Trade The Tails?
Splitting 18,863 Polymarket events into continuous and categorical slices and re-running the v1 analysis. Concentration is architecture-wide; ghost markets are a categorical phenomenon.
Binary Events: What Happens When You Split One Market Into Twenty
A metadata study of 36,777 Polymarket events: splitting one question into many binary contracts concentrates liquidity in ~5 markets, leaves ghost markets in the tails, and taxes the low-priced contracts.
The Yes Bias Might Not Exist
Analysing 7,292 resolved events and 28,793 Polymarket trades: the apparent YES bias looks like longshot preference channelled through how questions are framed.
Information as Supply
Prediction market TAM should include the supply side: as the cost of producing real-time probability estimates collapses, the addressable market widens far past trading volume.
Noisy Traders Are Not Dumb Money
The smart-money-vs-dumb-money framing misreads prediction markets. Drawing on NBER, the BIN model, and the Kapoor Quadrant, noise is a structural requirement, not a bug.
Prediction Market Resolution: A State Confirmation Problem
Prediction markets must agree on what actually happened. functionSPACE compares delegated (Kalshi) and collective (UMA, Reality.eth, Chainlink) confirmation.
The Prediction Market Economy
Prediction markets are under 0.5% of DeFi volume, but reframed as information finance they look early, not small. functionSPACE maps the four-layer prediction economy.
Information Vectors: an intro to composable beliefs
Beliefs aren't binary — they're directional, bracketed, distributional. Binary contracts force 1-bit expression and fragment capital up to 256×; composable beliefs trade on a shared surface.