Opinions
Notes, perspectives, and working thoughts on the state of information markets and the ideas shaping them.
Make prediction markets simpler, not dumber
The primitive can be complex. Using it shouldn't be. Four interactions on one World Cup market, and what happens when you simplify the way people express a view rather than the thing being traded.
Can all prediction markets be numerical?
A user wanted plain win-or-loss trading on our NBA markets. It turned out functionSPACE already had it: win/loss, spreads, and full probability curves are interfaces to one underlying numerical market.
Beyond the Odds: What Prediction Markets Miss
Belief is a shape. A sample of 622 negRisk bracket events on Polymarket shows that fewer than half price a coherent probability distribution. Continuous markets change the unit of trade.
Experimenting with group-based belief aggregation in probability markets
A team-built PoC on functionSPACE that lets users form guilds, express individual beliefs, and merge them into a single team distribution — and why teaming fits a distribution-market protocol.
The oracle should be a market
The core contradiction in permissionless prediction markets — decentralised trade, centralised settlement — only resolves when the oracle itself becomes a market, where disagreement becomes price discovery.
The predictoors guide to making better forecasts
Forecasting research from Tetlock & Gardner's "Superforecasting" applied to modern markets. "I am not an expert, just a mere vassal passing this along to whoever finds it useful."