Open research · living list · last updated -

Open Problems in Prediction Market Research.

functionSPACE is building a continuous-distribution prediction market primitive. This page tracks open research problems we believe matter for the prediction market ecosystem.

Some are funded as bounties; all are open invitations for serious work. If you have an angle on any of these, or want to propose something not yet here, get in touch.

Total entries-
Open now-
Tier 1 - deep-
Tier 2 - scoped-
Pressure-test-
Programme · how this works, attribution, quality bar
§01 How it works

Two tiers of contribution. Cash and / or token are allocated on acceptance after editorial review, not on submission, and are negotiable per contributor and piece.

  • Tier 1Deep research. Original work by domain experts in derivatives, market microstructure, mechanism design, data science, or law / regulation. 1,500-4,000 words or notebook plus writeup.
  • Tier 2Scoped bounties. Defined-scope analysis, paper breakdowns, use-case retrospectives. 800-1,500 words.
PT - Pressure-test entries

Some entries are tagged Pressure-test. These ask the contributor to act as a design critic against the functionSPACE protocol mechanism. Each PT entry shows the specific mechanism version being researched, canonicalised in the corresponding white-paper version, and the deliverable should frame its analysis against that version explicitly, calling out limitations and improvement vectors.

The mechanism is iterating. The white-paper version stated on the entry is the version under pressure-test; later mechanism changes are out of scope unless added to the brief at claim time.

§02 Attribution

All accepted research is published in collaboration with functionSPACE, on functionspace.dev/research and the functionSPACE X account, with contributor credit.

Where a piece of work materially shapes the protocol or core mechanism, additional formal attribution can be granted, negotiated case by case at acceptance.

§03 Quality bar
  • SourcesEvery numerical claim must have a source. Priority: academic papers > on-chain > official reports > news > community.
  • HonestyHypotheses flagged as hypotheses. No unverified assertions stated as fact.
  • AccessIf a primary source isn't accessible, mark [UNVERIFIED] and move on. A headline or URL is not a source.
  • ReproShare notebooks and data where applicable.
Claim → See one you'd like to take on? DM @justigor with the entry number and a 2-3 sentence pitch on your angle and timeline. DM @justigor on X →
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Get involved · two ways in ◆ · ◆
Primary action Claim a bounty. Pick any entry above, DM @justigor on X with the entry number and a 2-3 sentence pitch covering your angle and timeline. We'll confirm scope and any cash / token allocation before you start. DM @justigor on X → x.com/justigor Open invitation Collaborate on something else. This list is what we're actively scoping, not the limit of what we're interested in. If you're working on something adjacent - a paper, a dataset, an idea that needs a collaborator - we want to hear from you. Pitch the question → x.com/justigor